Thursday, September 16, 2010

Primary Day Thoughts….

Primary Day is over and the biggest surprise is there weren't many big surprises. The only real surprise is Paul Schmid winning over Dave Dennis and truthfully I'm not that surprised there either.

The Senate race ended exactly how I figured it would. Mike Rodrigues easily won the race, even before the Westport vote came in he was ahead. I figured he would be the winner back when he announced. Honestly looking at the votes I don't think anyone was going to beat Rodrigues. Even if you took Coogan and Lawless out of the picture Mitchell just wouldn't have gotten enough votes to make up for the cushion Rodrigues' overwhelming victory in Westport provided him. So now Mike goes on to face his Republican challenger, which means he is as good as in.

Paul Schmid can probably thank Mike Rodrigues for helping get out that Westport vote that also proved the deciding factor in Schmid beating Dave Dennis and John Rodrigues. Now here you have to wonder if Dennis would have won the race if John Rodrigues hadn't been running too.

Dave Dennis: 1397 Rodrigues: 1034 Paul Schmid: 2121

Schmid was running a distant 3rd in Fall River but crushed Dennis in Westport getting over 1,500 votes! His Westport total alone was enough to give him the victory! Certainly without John Rodrigues the race would have closer but I think Schmid probably still wins. What is interesting about John Rodrigues is this year he runs for the 8th Bristol District seat and a few years ago he ran for 7th Bristol District seat. Does this guy live in a mobile home? Anyway Schmid is the winner and gets to go and face the Independent, George Jacome in the General Election. Who wins that one?

Speaking of the 7th Bristol seat, Kevin Aguiar won a less than commanding victory of Alan Silvia. Less than 300 votes separate these two. I think this could be the most interesting race because I've talked to a lot of people that were not enthusiastic about Kevin Aguiar. At the same time I'm not sure if the support is going to be there for CJ Ferry. I don't see unenrolled voters breaking for CJ and I don't see Democrats switching sides. What if Alan Silvia were to run a write in campaign? I bet he keeps most of his 1,600 votes and gets a good share of the unenrolled and maybe some Republicans too. It was a friend of mine who threw this idea at me and I have to tell you after thinking about it, if I were Alan, I wouldn't put the campaign signs away just yet.

The Republicans…

Oh I hear all this crap from a few diehards about how the Tea Party movement is going to be in play and all this nonsense about this is the year for Republican candidates. I'm not buying it, at least not for the local races. The big problem about the Republican candidates is nobody has heard of them or from them. Derek Maksy will be Mike Rodrigues competition come November. Heard of him? Of course not. In fact a few weeks back I had to Google just to confirm if there was a Republican candidate in the race. Have you heard a PEEP out of CJ Ferry? Me either but he's running against Kevin Aguiar. Want to put any bets on how these races will end? Hell they couldn't even find a Republican to run for the 8th Bristol seat! Here's the problem Republicans are a minority in Massachusetts. In Fall River there are roughly 3,300 Republicans to about 26,000 Democrats. If a Republican candidate wants to win he or she have to get that small base and start beating on the doors of unenrolled and those Democrats who are willing to vote outside of the party. These guys should have been putting in some serious work well before the General Election. Hey looking at CJ Ferry's campaign website he doesn't even have anything listed under issues. Are things going that well in Fall River? But that's OK because Derek Maksy doesn't even have an area on HIS website FOR issues. Personally I don't see these lackluster campaigns getting into high gear fast enough to even show up on the radar of their Democratic rivals.

On a personal note, I didn't really talk about these races leading up to the Primary, but I hope to focus a lot more on the races leading up the General Election. I hope you are too.


Anonymous said...

You pretty much summed it up. Schmidt received 1,500 of the 1,900 votes that went to rodrigues. Kudos to Westport for showing hoe influential voter turnout is elections. I know i'm stating the obvious but they wanted representation at the state level and delivered it for themselves. That said Schmidt will have trouble with jacome in the final.

Anonymous said...

While I think regionalization will benefit all the greater fall river area, I still think Fall River needs to take care of itself first.